СТРАТФОР: Знаем много за Борисов, не става за казване Mind the horns!

“Трябва да пропусна МНОГО информация, която имаме за Борисов (б.ред. главните букви са в оригинала), просто защото не съм сигурен коя част от нея може да ни навлече юридически проблеми” – пише старши анализаторът Марко Папич във вътрешна дискусия на СТРАТФОР, изтекла в сайта Wikileaks.

В поредица от съобщения анализаторите на “Частното ЦРУ” обсъждат текст за промяната в отношенията между София и Москва след като правителството на Бойко Борисов идва на власт. Работното заглавие е: “Антируска България? Не се надявайте много!” Основният автор е Папич, а окончателният вариант е публикуван като анализ на СТРАТФОР на 14 юли 2009 г. със заглавие “България все още е на страната на Русия“.

В разпространения анализ пише, че маневрите на Борисов с Белене и Южен Поток целят по-скоро той да изземе контрола върху енергийните проекти от своите предшественици, отколкото да влезе в конфликт с “историческия съюзник” Русия.

Неофициалните коментари на авторите, подготвящи текста обаче са много по-живописни.

“Дали Русия иска да даде на Борисов свобода на действие, за да спечели контрола върху тези проекти и други аспекти на отношенията на София с Москва?” – пита се анализаторът Кендра Весел.

“Няма да станее … те знаят защо ги прави … той се опитва да върти интриги със собствените си хора при контрола на тези предприятия. Те знаят, че ако той прецака приятеля си от Московската мафия, тя ще го вкара в пътя.” – отговаря Марко Папич.

“След като Борисов почувства солидна основа в контрола на всички аспекти на българо-руските отношения, страната вероятно пак ще стане един от най-верните съюзници на Русия в ЕС и в НАТО” – пише още в непубликуваната част на анализа.

“Държавното” ЦРУ също знае много за Борисов

През 2006 г. американският посланик в София Джон Байърли пише в секретен доклад, че Борисов е силно зависим от тъмното си минало и е участвал в контрабанда на горива и трафик на амфетамини.

За разлика от СТРАТФОР, официалните служби на САЩ виждат зависимост на Борисов не от московската мафия и Лужков, а от “свързания с руското разузнаване и организирана престъпност” олигарх Валентин Златев, шеф на Лукойл.

Информацията за Борисов е получена от няколко независими канала, уточнява посланикът, включително и от американска тайна служба с кодово име SIMO [06SOFIA647], за която публичната информация е изключително оскъдна.

Борисов отхвърли информацията за доклада на Байърли с аргумента, че не чете жълта преса.

Руската мафия дърпа конците в София?

В коментар към една от черновите Марко Папич развива виждането си за отношенията на Борисов с московската мафия като намесва и Първанов.

“Този проблем (б.ред. отказването от руските енергийни проекти) ще бъде решен точно по същия начин, както всеки сериозен ход на Борисов… Московският кмет Юри Лужков, шеф на московската мафия, който изглежда е добър приятел на Борисов (което потвърждава гледната ми точка), сяда с Първанов и му казва, че руската организирана престъпност ще подпали София ако Първанов оплеска работата” – пише Марко Папич.

В други доклади на СТРАТФОР Лужков недвусмислено е обрисуван като “министър на организираната престъпност“, натоварен от Кремъл с “портфейл” да взаимодейства с мафията.

Главният прокурор Юрий Чайка също е донесъл на СТРАТФОР за ролята на Лужков в енергийните преговори с България. Това е станало след посещение на Станишев в Москва на 27 април 2009 г.

Българският премиер е имал рядката възможност да се срещне с някои “необичайни руснаци“, с които имал “вълнуващи разговори” за Южен Поток и Белене. Необичайните руснаци били Лужков и “неговите хора“. Те провели със Станишев “приятна дискусия, ако разбирате какво искам да кажа” – обяснява Чайка.

Коментар на Биволъ

Юрий Лужков беше чест гост в България преди да изпадне в немилост пред Кремъл през септември 2010 г. Бойко Борисов афишираше публично приятелството си с него. Първанов също редовно се срещаше с Лужков при многобройните си визити в Москва и при посещенията на московския кмет в България.

Очевидно СТРАТФОР разполагат с данни, които могат да обяснят как управленските решения в София за руските енергийни проекти се определят от паралелни зависимости: Кремъл – Руската Мафия (чрез Лужков) – Българските управленци (Първанов, Станишев, Борисов). За това говори и многозначителната реплика, че знаят много за Борисов, но не всичко могат да публикуват.

Особен интерес за анализ буди активната работа по български субекти в полза на СТРАТФОР на анализатора Марко Папич. Той се е присъединил към мрежата през 2007 г., като в портфолиото му е отбелязано, че понякога работи и с информация и анализи за “частни клиенти” по света. Папич недвусмислено заявява “МНОГО информация имаме за Борисов”. Въпросите тук са два. Първият е естествено същността на информацията за Борисов, но е ясно със сигурност, че тя е силно компрометираща. Вторият въпрос е, кого точно визира Папич под множественото число на глагола “имаме”. Дали само СТРАТФОР? Сръбският анализатор се проявява по интересен начин и в доклад за контактите със съветника на Първанов Вени Марковски. Там той открито отрича въобще съществуването на български език, признавайки “ние в Сърбия го наричаме източносръбски”. По този начин декларираната позиция на Папич, разкрива една дълбока антибългарска политическа приемственост още от времето на бащите на съвременния сръбски национализъм – Цвиич и Новакович, които отричат въобще съществуването на българска нация. Независимо, че е американски възпитаник, анализаторът никак не е изоставил вековната сръбска гледна точка на Балканска геополитика. Възможно ли е наличието на дебело досие от неизвестни моменти в биографията на българския Министър-Председател да го поставя в определена зависимост по отношение на националната ни политика? Т.нар. “сръбска връзка” на Борисов в роден план минава през случая на Сретен Йосич и неговите публични изявления пред трибунала за “топла” близост с Борисов в миналото. Това предизвика и привикването на Премиера ни да дава показания по делото срещу международния наркобос пред Белградския съд. Ако се опитаме да сглобим всички тези части от “пъзела”, картината става фрустрираща. Демонстративно нихилистичното поведение на българското правителство по отношение защитата правата на сънародниците ни в остатъчната бивша Югославия /Сърбия и ФИРОМ, управлявани все още от структурите на тайните им служби/ предизвика вече поредица от протести пред Министерски съвет и Народното събрание.

Изтеклата кореспонденция на СТРАТФОР се състои от над 5,5 млн електронни съобщения и покрива времевия интервал 2004 – 2011 г. Името на Бойко Борисов се среща в над 2000 документа от изтеклите мейлове на агенцията. Биволъ е партньор на Wikileaks за публикациите базирани на тези документи.

English

“I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble” writes senior analyst Marco Papic in an internal STRATFOR discussion, released by the Wikileaks site.

In a series of communications, analysts of the “Private CIA” discuss text about the change in relations between Sofia and Moscow since the government of Boyko Borisov came to power. The working title is “Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don’t get your hopes up!” Papic is the leading author, while the final version is published as a STRATFOR analysis under the title Bulgaria: Still on Russia’s Side

The distributed analysis says that Borisov’s maneuvers with Belene and South Stream are intended rather to seize control of energy projects from his predecessors than to create a conflict with “the historical ally” Russia.

The informal comments of the authors preparing the text are, however, much more picturesque.

…is Russia willing to give Borisov wiggle room to gain control of these projects and other aspects of the Sofia-Moscow relationship? – asks analyst Kendra Vessels.

It won’t… they know why he is doing them… he is trying to manuver his own people into control of those enterprises. They know that if he screws around his friend from the Moscow mob will pull him back in line. – Papic answered.

The Russian Mafia Is Pulling the Strings in Sofia?

Commenting on a draft, Marko Papic develops his own vision for Borisov’ relations with the Moscow mafia, and involves Parvanov as well.

“That spat was resolved exactly the same way that any serious Borisov move will be… Moscow Mayor, head of the Moscow mob, and apparently Borisov’s close personal friend (which just goes to prove my point), Yuri Luzhkov sat down with Parvanov and told him he would have Russian OC set Sofia ablaze if Parvanov messed around…” writes Marco Papic.

In other STRATFOR reports, Luzhkov is clearly portrayed as the “minister of organized crime,” assigned by the Kremlin with the “portfolio” to interact with the mafia.

Chief Prosecutor, Yuri Chaika, had also acted as an informant of STRATFOR and had reported on Luzhkov’s role in energy negotiations with Bulgaria. It happened after Stanishev’s visit in Moscow on April 27, 2009.

The Bulgarian Prime Minister had the rare opportunity to meet some “unusual Russians,” with whom he conducted “exciting conversations” about South Stream and Belene. The unusual Russians had been Luzhkov and “his people“. Stanishev have had a “nice chat with Luzhkov and his people on Monday-if you get my drift” explains Chaika.

Bivol’s Comment

Yuri Luzhkov was a frequent guest in Bulgaria before falling from grace with the Kremlin in 2011. Boyko Borisov displayed openly and for the public his friendship with him. Parvanov also met regularly with Luzhkov during his many visits to Moscow and the visits of the Moscow Mayor to Bulgaria.

Obviously, STRATFOR have information that could explain how management decisions of Sofia on Russian energy projects are defined by parallel dependencies: Kremlin – Russian Mafia (through Luzhkov) – Bulgarian officials (Parvanov Stanishev, Borisov). There is a meaningful note that is also evidence for the above, saying they knew much about Borisov, but cannot publish everything.

Particular interest for analysis raises the active work on Bulgarian subjects in favor of Strategic Forecasting Inc. (known as Stratfor) of the analyst Marko Papic. He joined the network in 2007, as in his portfolio is noted that sometimes he works too with information and analysis for “private customers” in the world. Papic is unequivocal “MANY information we have for Borisov.” There are two issues here. The first one naturally is the essence of the information for Borisov, but it is certainly clear that it is highly compromising. The second issue is who exactly Papic refers to in the plural verb “have”. Whether only Stratfor? The Serbian analyst manifests himself in an interesting way too in a report on the contacts with Parvanov’s councilor Veni Markovski. There he openly denies the existence in general of the Bulgarian language, acknowledging “we in Serbia call it east-Serbian.” Thus declared position of Papic, reveals a deep anti-Bulgarian political continuity since the time of the fathers of modern Serbian nationalism – Cvijic and Novakovic, who did deny in general the existence of the Bulgarian nation. Although he is an American graduate, the analyst did not abandon the ancient Serbian point of view of Balkan geopolitics. Could the presence of a thick file of unknown moments in the biography of the Bulgarian Prime Minister put him in a certain dependence regarding our national policy? The so called “Serbian connection” of Borisov in native plan goes through the case of Sreten Yosich and its public statements in front of the tribunal of “hot” link to Borisov. This caused the familiarization of our Premier to testify in the case against the international drug kingpin before the Belgrade court. If we try to assemble all those parts of the “puzzle”, the picture becomes frustrating. The demonstrative nihilistic behavior of the Bulgarian government regarding the protection of the rights of our compatriots in the residual ex-Yugoslavia / Serbia and FIROM still managed by the structures of their secret services / number of already has provoked a consecution of protests in front of the Council of Ministers and the National Assembly.

STRATFOR’s leaked correspondence includes over 5.5 million emails, written between 2004 and 2011. Boyko Borisov’s name is mentioned in over 2 000 documents from the agency’s leaked emails. Bivol is an official partner of Wikileaks for publications based on these documents.

The “Official CIA” Also Knows Plenty about Borisov

In 2006, US Ambassador in Sofia, John Beyrle, wrote in a secret report that Borisov is highly dependent of his dark past and has been involved in oil-siphoning scandals and major traffic in methamphetamines.

Unlike STRATFOR, the US official services see Borisov as being dependent not of the Moscow mafia and Luzhkov, but of oligarch Valentin Zlatev, Head of Lukoil, who is “associated with Russian intelligence and organized crime”.

The information on Borisov had been received through several independent channels, the Ambassador notes, including the American secret service codenamed SIMO, for which there is very scarce public information.

Borisov rejected Beyrle’s report on grounds he does not read “tabloids.”

Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!
From 	marko.papic@stratfor.com
To 	analysts@stratfor.com
Others 	MessageId: <868965367.1958811247515824017.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 4A5B93E5.5030902@stratfor.com
Text
It won't... they know why he is doing them... he is trying to manuver his
own people into control of those enterprises. They know that if he screws
around his friend from the Moscow mob will pull him back in line.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Kendra Vessels"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:07:01 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

Great job in explaining why Bulgaria and Russia need one another-
geopolitically- but is Russia willing to give Borisov wiggle room to gain
control of these projects and other aspects of the Sofia-Moscow
relationship? Might help to add a couple of sentences on how Russia will
deal with Borisov's moves.

Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!
From 	marko.papic@stratfor.com
To 	analysts@stratfor.com
Others 	MessageId: <111736615.1974441247520050922.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 461888049.1974421247520014925.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com
Text
That spat was resolved exactly the same way that any serious Borisov move
will be... Moscow Mayor, head of the Moscow mob, and apparently Borisov's
close personal friend (which just goes to prove my point), Yuri Luzhkov
sat down with Parvanov and told him he would have Russian OC set Sofia
ablaze if Parvanov messed around...

----- Original Message -----
From: "Korena Zucha"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 4:06:26 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

Marko Papic wrote:

I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
discussion is not out of place.

Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
2004. Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream
project a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has
been lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and
Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the
Western Alliance. What about when Bulgarian Presdent Parvanov said in
April that the Bulgarian pipeline network is not an a**extensiona** of
Russiaa**s networks, and that Russian state natural gas company Gazprom
should respect Bulgariaa**s sovereignty?
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090427_russia_bulgaria_lingering_tensions

Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden
to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under
Stanisheva**s government.

However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which
would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired
by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
Bulgariaa**s territory.

Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
Moscowa**s regional hegemony.

The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship. However,
in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
play the role of its protector and champion in the region. Meanwhile,
from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
regional hegemons.

Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia. Once Borisov feels that
he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.

***

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