On October 24, 2019, the spokesman of Bulgaria’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) Alexander Andreev announced that a total of 6,227,901 citizens are eligible to vote in the October 27 local elections, according to the approved electoral rolls.
It never became clear where the above data came from and who confirmed it, but it is most likely data from the State-maintained Civil Registration and Administrative Services (GRAO) system.
According to the National Statistical Institute (NSI, http://www.nsi.bg) the population of Bulgaria as of December 31, 2018, is 7,000,039 people. The NSI is also supported by the taxpayer and, unlike the GRAO, is mandated to apply a scientific approach to data.
The NSI also provides detailed statistics by age groups. Here is the number of Bulgarian minors, who are not eligible to vote:
0 years of age – 62,039 people
1 – 4 years of age – 263,686 people
5 – 9 years of age – 344,667 people
10-14 years of age – 334,453 people
In total – children up to 14 years of age who do not have the right to vote are 1,004,485 people
There are no accurate figures for minors from 14 to 18 years of age, but at this stage the data is enough to show that in theory the highest number of persons who could vote by October 27, 2019, had been 5,995,554 people (7,000,039 – 1,004,485 = 5,995,554)
However, according to the CEC, the number of voters is 6,227,901.
The difference so far is at least 232,347 people (6,227,901 – 5,995,554 = 232 347).
But “let’s continue the conversation,” as “Karlsson-on-the-Roof” used to say.
Since in the NSI data there is no group of minors aged 15 to 18, this means that even the population of 15 to 19 years of age is excluded from the above calculations. And it is a large enough sample – 315,547.
The population aged 14 to 18, i.e. without voting rights is a subset of the population of 15 to 19 years of age.
Thus, with a minimum approximation, it can be calculated that it is 252,438 people ((315,347: 5) x 4 = 63,109 x 4 = 252,438). Let’s round it down to 250,000 people.
Then, 232,347 + 250,000 = 482,347 people
Therefore, the number of artificially added voters is at least 480,000, again rounded.
From now on, the conversation should continue in some office in charge, which is obviously not the CEC, because such mistakes are considered technical there, as in the case of the number of voters announced in the first election round, of whom 100,000 subsequently disappeared from the roll in the capital Sofia alone.
Hercule Poirot
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